Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MAX MUNCY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MAX
MUNCY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
58
Grade C
Matchup
VS Drew Rasmussen · RHP
92.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
43
VS
ERA
2.08
WHIP
0.82
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.3 | 80.8 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 37% | 22% |
| xwOBA | .382 | .322 |
| xSLG | .578 | .407 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 33% |
| Chase% | 23% | 40% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.3 avg EV · 15.7% barrel · 37% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Rasmussen0
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
7 210°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 4:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game