Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Merrill Kelly
Arizona Diamondbacks · St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Pitcher
ERA 5.06 · WHIP 1.48 · K 14% · 10 starts
MERRILL KELLY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MERRILL
KELLY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%93 mph
Changeup25%89 mph
Cutter16%92 mph
Curveball13%83 mph
Sinker10%93 mph
Slider9%87 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
35
projected lineup
VS
ERA
5.06
WHIP
1.48
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .448 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 21% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.2
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
5.22
ERA
1.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
21% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.22 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.