Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Michael McGreevy
St. Louis Cardinals · Baltimore Orioles vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.58 · WHIP 1.39 · K 18% · 11 starts
MICHAEL MCGREEVY
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MICHAEL
MCGREEVY
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam22%92 mph
Changeup18%87 mph
Sinker17%91 mph
Curveball16%79 mph
Cutter12%89 mph
Sweeper10%82 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.58
WHIP
1.39
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .385 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
5.13
ERA
1.48
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.13 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
8 345°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:41 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.