Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Michael Soroka
Arizona Diamondbacks · Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.93 · WHIP 0.99 · K 21% · 11 starts
MICHAEL SOROKA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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MICHAEL
SOROKA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam32%93 mph
Slurve27%81 mph
Changeup15%85 mph
Cutter14%89 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.93
WHIP
0.99
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .399 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 3% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 21% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.8
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
3.80
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
3% barrel · 21% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.80 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:24 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.