Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Michael Soroka
Arizona Diamondbacks · Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks · Pitcher
ERA 2.45 · WHIP 0.73 · K 20% · 6 starts
MICHAEL SOROKA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MICHAEL
SOROKA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slurve33%80 mph
4-Seam32%94 mph
Changeup15%86 mph
Sinker10%93 mph
Cutter9%88 mph
Matchup
VS MIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.45
WHIP
0.73
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .282 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 26% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
2.67
ERA
0.74
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 26% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 6 starts
0 of 6 starts over
Last 5: 2.67 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.