Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MICHAEL TOGLIA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MICHAEL
TOGLIA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Luis Castillo · RHP
92.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
39
VS
ERA
4.73
WHIP
1.31
K%
16%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 76.3 | 89.5 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 30% |
| xwOBA | .329 | .433 |
| xSLG | .399 | .657 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 24% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
76.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Castillo—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
2 225°
Rain
10%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:07 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game