Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Michael Wacha
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.10 · WHIP 1.00 · K 21% · 11 starts
MICHAEL WACHA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MICHAEL
WACHA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup30%81 mph
4-Seam27%93 mph
Cutter13%89 mph
Sinker12%93 mph
Curveball10%75 mph
Slider9%84 mph
Matchup
VS CLE LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.10
WHIP
1.00
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .337 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
6.5
IP/GM
2.51
ERA
0.84
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.51 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CLE—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
7 283°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:11 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.