Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Michael Wacha
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.57 · WHIP 1.32 · K 19% · 12 starts
MICHAEL WACHA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MICHAEL
WACHA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Changeup24%81 mph
4-Seam22%94 mph
Cutter18%90 mph
Sinker15%94 mph
Curveball13%76 mph
Slider8%85 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.57
WHIP
1.32
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .333 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
4.10
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 4.10 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
12 197°
Rain
93%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.