Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Miguel Ullola
Houston Astros · Houston Astros vs Tampa Bay Rays · Pitcher
ERA 3.86 · WHIP 0.86 · K 37% · 5 starts
MIGUEL ULLOLA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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MIGUEL
ULLOLA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam72%95 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
58
projected lineup
VS
ERA
3.86
WHIP
0.86
K%
37%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 47% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .394 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 50% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
1.4
IP/GM
3.86
ERA
0.86
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
37% season K rate
Contact Suppression
50% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 5 starts
0 of 5 starts over
Last 5: 3.86 ERA · 37% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:01 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.