Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mike Paredes
Minnesota Twins · Athletics vs Minnesota Twins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.72 · WHIP 1.43 · K 12% · 9 starts
MIKE PAREDES
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MIKE
PAREDES
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%93 mph
Changeup29%88 mph
Sweeper23%80 mph
Cutter15%87 mph
Matchup
VS OAK LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.72
WHIP
1.43
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .391 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 16% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 55% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.8
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
5.12
ERA
1.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
16% barrel · 55% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 5.12 ERA · 10% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs OAK—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
92°
Wind
2 270°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:41 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.