Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mike Paredes
Minnesota Twins · Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.00 · WHIP 1.00 · K 31% · 1 starts
MIKE PAREDES
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
MIKE
PAREDES
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam40%93 mph
Changeup24%88 mph
Sweeper23%79 mph
Cutter13%88 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
31%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 21% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .222 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
3.00
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
31% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 3.00 ERA · 31% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:40 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.