Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Mitch Bratt
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.00 · WHIP 1.67 · K 11% · 2 starts
MITCH BRATT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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MITCH
BRATT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%92 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
33
VS
ERA
6.00
WHIP
1.67
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 40% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .280 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.5
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
6.00
ERA
1.67
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 6.00 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 251°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:25 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.