Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NATE FURMAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NATE
FURMAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Chase Burns · RHP
93.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
3
VS
ERA
3.25
WHIP
1.25
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 75.4 | 90.3 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 4% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 39% |
| xwOBA | .153 | .308 |
| xSLG | .196 | .434 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 28% |
| Chase% | 10% | 37% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
75.4 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Burns—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
8 263°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:19 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game