Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NATHAN CHURCH
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NATHAN
CHURCH
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Dylan Cease · RHP
90.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
7
VS
ERA
1.89
WHIP
0.95
K%
38%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 83.2 | 83.7 |
| Barrel% | 8% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 26% |
| xwOBA | .277 | .309 |
| xSLG | .382 | .455 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 26% |
| Chase% | 47% | 40% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
83.2 avg EV · 8.3% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cease—
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:44 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game