Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Nathan Eovaldi
Texas Rangers · Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.64 · WHIP 1.09 · K 28% · 11 starts
NATHAN EOVALDI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
NATHAN
EOVALDI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Splitter32%89 mph
Curveball25%77 mph
Cutter20%90 mph
4-Seam14%95 mph
Sinker9%94 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.64
WHIP
1.09
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .364 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.6
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
3.48
ERA
1.16
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.48 ERA · 34% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.