Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Nathan Lukes
Toronto Blue Jays · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
44
D
Tonight's Matchup
24
Matchup
Avoid
vs Bryce Elder · RHP · 90.2 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.16
WHIP
1.05
K%
21%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
85.8
87.3
Barrel%
5.9%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
41%
50%
xwOBA
.560
.414
xSLG
.715
.520
Whiff%
18%
6%
Chase%
26%
22%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Bryce Elder.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
85.8
Barrel%
5.9%
Hard Hit%
41%
Sweet Spot%
65%
xwOBA
0.560
xSLG
0.715
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
90%
9/10 games
Last 20
60%
12/20 games
Last 30
57%
17/30 games
AVG
.419
OBP
.455
SLG
.548
OPS
1.003
HR
0
RBI
4
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Baltimore Orioles | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Baltimore Orioles | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Baltimore Orioles | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4/24 | Cleveland Guardians | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4/22 | Los Angeles Angels | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 4/21 | Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4/20 | Los Angeles Angels | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Nathan Lukes
Toronto Blue Jays · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
86.6 mph
Avg LA
16.6°
Hard-hit %
36%
Barrel %
16%
Outcomes (56 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
4Single
15Out
37Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.