Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
NELSON VELÁZQUEZ
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NELSON
VELÁZQUEZ
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Anthony Kay · LHP
90.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
54
VS
ERA
3.63
WHIP
1.21
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.6 | 85.6 |
| Barrel% | 25% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .343 | .354 |
| xSLG | .497 | .526 |
| Whiff% | 36% | 22% |
| Chase% | 26% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.6 avg EV · 25.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kay—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
7 130°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game