Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Nick Gonzales
Pittsburgh Pirates · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros
MG Score
43
D
Tonight's Matchup
vs Mike Burrows · RHP · 89.9 mph avg
ERA
4.32
WHIP
1.17
K%
16%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.8
86.7
Barrel%
5.7%
10.0%
Hard Hit%
37%
25%
xwOBA
.356
.365
xSLG
.488
.525
Whiff%
19%
15%
Chase%
28%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Mike Burrows.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.8
Barrel%
5.7%
Hard Hit%
37%
Sweet Spot%
29%
xwOBA
0.356
xSLG
0.488
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
50%
5/10 games
Last 20
60%
12/20 games
Last 30
52%
12/23 games
AVG
.237
OBP
.256
SLG
.368
OPS
.625
HR
1
RBI
5
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Minnesota Twins | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Minnesota Twins | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Minnesota Twins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Chicago Cubs | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Chicago Cubs | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Chicago Cubs | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Nick Gonzales
Pittsburgh Pirates · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
87.4 mph
Avg LA
7.0°
Hard-hit %
46%
Barrel %
15%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
1Triple
0Double
5Single
33Out
61Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.