Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Nick Lodolo
Cincinnati Reds · Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.40 · WHIP 1.50 · K 19% · 11 starts
NICK LODOLO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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NICK
LODOLO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker31%94 mph
4-Seam24%94 mph
Curveball23%82 mph
Changeup22%88 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.40
WHIP
1.50
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .384 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
4.9
IP/GM
3.65
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.65 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 338°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.