Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Nick Lodolo
Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.87 · WHIP 1.56 · K 18% · 10 starts
NICK LODOLO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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NICK
LODOLO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker27%94 mph
Curveball27%83 mph
Changeup25%88 mph
4-Seam21%94 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.87
WHIP
1.56
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 27% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .472 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 47% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
6.52
ERA
1.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 47% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.52 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
71°
Wind
7 297°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:23 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.