Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NICK LOFTIN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NICK
LOFTIN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Michael King · RHP
88.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
20
VS
ERA
4.11
WHIP
1.21
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.5 | 80.6 |
| Barrel% | 5% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 18% |
| xwOBA | .315 | .342 |
| xSLG | .446 | .428 |
| Whiff% | 14% | 23% |
| Chase% | 23% | 44% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.5 avg EV · 4.8% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs King0
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
6 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game