Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Nick Loftin
Kansas City Royals · Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds
MG Score
40
D
Tonight's Matchup
47
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Andrew Abbott · LHP · 88.2 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
1.48
WHIP
1.05
K%
16%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
84.0
93.9
Barrel%
11.1%
21.1%
Hard Hit%
25%
53%
xwOBA
.245
.516
xSLG
.349
.834
Whiff%
10%
19%
Chase%
19%
30%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Andrew Abbott.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
84.0
Barrel%
11.1%
Hard Hit%
25%
Sweet Spot%
36%
xwOBA
0.245
xSLG
0.349
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
30%
3/10 games
Last 20
40%
8/20 games
Last 30
40%
12/30 games
AVG
.120
OBP
.185
SLG
.160
OPS
.345
HR
0
RBI
1
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Texas Rangers | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Texas Rangers | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Texas Rangers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | New York Yankees | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | New York Yankees | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Boston Red Sox | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Boston Red Sox | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/17 | St. Louis Cardinals | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/14 | Chicago White Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Nick Loftin
Kansas City Royals · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
86.6 mph
Avg LA
11.7°
Hard-hit %
34%
Barrel %
12%
Outcomes (50 balls)
Home Run
0Triple
0Double
7Single
7Out
36Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.