Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NICK YORKE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NICK
YORKE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Framber Valdez · LHP
87.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
51
VS
ERA
4.07
WHIP
1.46
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 93.6 | 91.0 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 67% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .500 | .353 |
| xSLG | .614 | .460 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 17% |
| Chase% | 33% | 25% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.6 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 67% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Valdez—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
3 315°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:36 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game