Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
NICO HOERNER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NICO
HOERNER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Kyle Harrison · LHP
89.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
VS
ERA
4.30
WHIP
1.24
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.5 | 87.3 |
| Barrel% | 3% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 28% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .338 | .393 |
| xSLG | .435 | .575 |
| Whiff% | 14% | 24% |
| Chase% | 37% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.5 avg EV · 3.2% barrel · 28% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Harrison0
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
10 208°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:13 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game