Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NOLAN ARENADO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NOLAN
ARENADO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
59
Grade C
Matchup
VS Michael McGreevy · RHP
87.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
31
VS
ERA
3.67
WHIP
1.30
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.3 | 91.1 |
| Barrel% | 10% | 18% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .324 | .288 |
| xSLG | .465 | .393 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 24% |
| Chase% | 29% | 33% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.3 avg EV · 10.0% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs McGreevy—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:57 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game