Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Nolan McLean
New York Mets · Houston Astros vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.76 · WHIP 1.13 · K 24% · 11 starts
NOLAN MCLEAN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
NOLAN
MCLEAN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker31%95 mph
4-Seam21%96 mph
Curveball18%82 mph
Cutter11%93 mph
Slider9%86 mph
Sweeper6%85 mph
Changeup5%88 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.76
WHIP
1.13
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .341 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
2.10
ERA
1.13
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.10 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
11 228°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:07 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.