Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Patrick Sandoval
Boston Red Sox · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.08 · WHIP 1.38 · K 26% · 1 starts
PATRICK SANDOVAL
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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PATRICK
SANDOVAL
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider31%86 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
69
VS
ERA
2.08
WHIP
1.38
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .375 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.0
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
2.08
ERA
1.38
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 1 starts
0 of 1 starts over
Last 5: 2.08 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
14 193°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.