Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Paul Skenes
Pittsburgh Pirates · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.41 · WHIP 1.33 · K 29% · 10 starts
PAUL SKENES
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
PAUL
SKENES
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%97 mph
Sweeper16%85 mph
Changeup13%89 mph
Slider11%87 mph
Splitter9%93 mph
Sinker6%97 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.41
WHIP
1.33
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .351 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 15% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
5.63
ERA
1.29
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
15% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.63 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
2 99°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:59 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.