Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Payton Tolle
Boston Red Sox · Seattle Mariners vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.50 · WHIP 1.17 · K 33% · 10 starts
PAYTON TOLLE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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PAYTON
TOLLE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%96 mph
Cutter21%89 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Curveball15%83 mph
Matchup
VS SEA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
74
VS
ERA
3.50
WHIP
1.17
K%
33%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .293 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 34% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.6
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
2.37
ERA
1.02
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
33% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 34% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.37 ERA · 33% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SEA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
10 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:16 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.