Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Payton Tolle
Boston Red Sox · Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.52 · WHIP 1.16 · K 24% · 11 starts
PAYTON TOLLE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
PAYTON
TOLLE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam47%96 mph
Cutter21%88 mph
Sinker21%95 mph
Curveball7%83 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.52
WHIP
1.16
K%
24%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .380 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
3.51
ERA
1.09
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
24% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.51 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
9 161°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:04 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.