Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
PETE ALONSO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
PETE
ALONSO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
65
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Tanner Gordon · RHP
89.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
91
VS
ERA
4.66
WHIP
1.34
K%
16%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 94.9 | 89.7 |
| Barrel% | 25% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 65% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .578 | .342 |
| xSLG | .921 | .498 |
| Whiff% | 24% | 16% |
| Chase% | 30% | 40% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
94.9 avg EV · 25.3% barrel · 65% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Gordon0
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
3 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:41 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game