Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
MG Score
64
C+
Tonight's Matchup
75
Matchup
Strong matchup
vs Connelly Early · LHP · 89.1 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.10
K%
24%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
94.8
92.0
Barrel%
18.1%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
54%
44%
xwOBA
.455
.387
xSLG
.706
.536
Whiff%
26%
19%
Chase%
30%
37%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Connelly Early: 3 PA · Low sample
AB
3
AVG
.000
OPS
.000
HR
0
H
0
K
0
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
94.8
Barrel%
18.1%
Hard Hit%
54%
Sweet Spot%
36%
xwOBA
0.455
xSLG
0.706
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
90%
9/10 games
Last 20
65%
13/20 games
Last 30
72%
18/25 games
AVG
.333
OBP
.409
SLG
.564
OPS
.973
HR
3
RBI
10
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Tampa Bay Rays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Tampa Bay Rays | 5 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Detroit Tigers | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Tampa Bay Rays | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Pete Alonso
Baltimore Orioles · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
93.8 mph
Avg LA
16.2°
Hard-hit %
49%
Barrel %
17%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
5Triple
0Double
7Single
19Out
69Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.