Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · Athletics vs Chicago Cubs
MG Score
76
B+
Tonight's Matchup
82
Matchup
Strong matchup
vs Gage Jump · 91.5 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
7.20
WHIP
2.00
K%
20%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
91.4
92.5
Barrel%
19.4%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
54%
39%
xwOBA
.464
.352
xSLG
.728
.485
Whiff%
23%
24%
Chase%
31%
40%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Gage Jump.
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
91.4
Barrel%
19.4%
Hard Hit%
54%
Sweet Spot%
42%
xwOBA
0.464
xSLG
0.728
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
80%
8/10 games
Last 20
60%
12/20 games
Last 30
59%
13/22 games
AVG
.297
OBP
.409
SLG
.541
OPS
.950
HR
2
RBI
6
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | St. Louis Cardinals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | St. Louis Cardinals | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Pittsburgh Pirates | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Houston Astros | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Houston Astros | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Houston Astros | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Pete Crow-Armstrong
Chicago Cubs · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
90.4 mph
Avg LA
15.2°
Hard-hit %
49%
Barrel %
21%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
2Double
4Single
22Out
68Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 9
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
APerformance Score
84Exit Velo
97.4 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
76.9%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
32.0%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.626
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
61.5%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Exit Velo, Hard Hit%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
114.6 mph
Launch Angle
24.8°
xBA
0.479
xSLG
1.033
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
19.2%
Fly Ball%
30.8%
Line Drive%
34.6%
Pop Up%
15.4%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.