Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Peter Lambert
Houston Astros · Chicago White Sox vs Houston Astros · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.86 · WHIP 1.32 · K 25% · 11 starts
PETER LAMBERT
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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PETER
LAMBERT
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam36%94 mph
Changeup25%87 mph
Cutter12%92 mph
Sinker11%93 mph
Slurve9%80 mph
Sweeper6%83 mph
Matchup
VS CHW LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.86
WHIP
1.32
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .342 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 29% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
6.38
ERA
1.75
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 29% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.38 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHW—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
4 301°
Rain
66%
HR Adj
+9%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:12 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.