Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
RAFAEL FLORES JR.
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
RAFAEL FLORES
JR.
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Andrew Abbott · LHP
86.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
76
VS
ERA
3.44
WHIP
1.29
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 86.8 | 90.3 |
| Barrel% | 20% | 19% |
| Hard Hit% | 30% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .410 | .460 |
| xSLG | .575 | .741 |
| Whiff% | 30% | 21% |
| Chase% | 29% | 22% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
86.8 avg EV · 20.0% barrel · 30% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Abbott—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
10 226°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game