Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Randy Dobnak
Kansas City Royals · San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.93 · WHIP 1.50 · K 11% · 3 starts
RANDY DOBNAK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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RANDY
DOBNAK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker42%92 mph
Changeup20%85 mph
Sweeper20%82 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.93
WHIP
1.50
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 10% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 4.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .338 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.3
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
1.93
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 3 starts
0 of 3 starts over
Last 5: 1.93 ERA · 11% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
89°
Wind
5 87°
Rain
92%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.