Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Randy Vásquez
San Diego Padres · San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.90 · WHIP 1.73 · K 11% · 11 starts
RANDY VÁSQUEZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RANDY
VÁSQUEZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%95 mph
Cutter22%91 mph
Sweeper14%84 mph
Sinker10%95 mph
Curveball9%84 mph
Changeup7%89 mph
Slider5%85 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.90
WHIP
1.73
K%
11%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 21% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .474 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 21% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 50% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
3.7
IP/GM
9.64
ERA
2.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
11% season K rate
Contact Suppression
21% barrel · 50% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 9.64 ERA · 10% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
5 251°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+20%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.