Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.20 · WHIP 1.30 · K 28% · 11 starts
RANGER SUAREZ
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RANGER
SUAREZ
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam27%92 mph
Cutter21%88 mph
Curveball19%75 mph
Sinker18%90 mph
Changeup10%81 mph
Slider5%78 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.20
WHIP
1.30
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .317 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 25% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.8
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.08
ERA
1.22
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 25% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.08 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
11 231°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.