Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Ranger Suarez
Boston Red Sox · Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.19 · WHIP 1.32 · K 21% · 11 starts
RANGER SUAREZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RANGER
SUAREZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%91 mph
Sinker20%90 mph
Cutter17%88 mph
Curveball17%76 mph
Changeup12%81 mph
Slider9%79 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.19
WHIP
1.32
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .335 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 4% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 35% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
5.70
ERA
1.56
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
4% barrel · 35% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.70 ERA · 13% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
12 233°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:39 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.