Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Ray Kerr
Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.76 · WHIP 0.52 · K 20% · 9 starts
RAY KERR
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RAY
KERR
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%95 mph
Curveball28%81 mph
Sinker24%95 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
74
VS
ERA
1.76
WHIP
0.52
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .325 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
1.7
IP/GM
1.04
ERA
0.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 1.04 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 8:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.