Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Reynaldo López
Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.30 · WHIP 1.30 · K 23% · 10 starts
REYNALDO LÓPEZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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REYNALDO
LÓPEZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam45%93 mph
Slider41%86 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.30
WHIP
1.30
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .473 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
6.86
ERA
1.73
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.86 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
68°
Wind
9 20°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-18%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:16 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.