Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Rhett Lowder
Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.72 · WHIP 1.69 · K 20% · 9 starts
RHETT LOWDER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RHETT
LOWDER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider29%85 mph
Sinker28%93 mph
4-Seam23%94 mph
Changeup20%86 mph
Matchup
VS MIL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.72
WHIP
1.69
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .445 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 16% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
3.5
IP/GM
5.19
ERA
1.79
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
16% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 5.19 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.