Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Rhett Lowder
Cincinnati Reds · Cincinnati Reds vs Chicago Cubs · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.93 · WHIP 1.34 · K 15% · 11 starts
RHETT LOWDER
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RHETT
LOWDER
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider27%85 mph
Sinker26%94 mph
Changeup22%87 mph
4-Seam17%94 mph
Curveball8%80 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.93
WHIP
1.34
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .343 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
4.34
ERA
1.28
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.34 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
8 242°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:40 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.