Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Richard Lovelady
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs Detroit Tigers · Pitcher
ERA 7.94 · WHIP 2.29 · K 19% · 10 starts
RICHARD LOVELADY
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RICHARD
LOVELADY
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper62%82 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
56
projected lineup
VS
ERA
7.94
WHIP
2.29
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 44% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .302 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 0% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.6
K/GM
0.6
IP/GM
6.00
ERA
2.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 0% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 6.00 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
66°
Wind
13 82°
Rain
24%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:18 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.