Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Riley Cornelio
Washington Nationals · Washington Nationals vs San Diego Padres · Pitcher
ERA 5.79 · WHIP 1.61 · K 25% · 10 starts
RILEY CORNELIO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RILEY
CORNELIO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider43%85 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
29
projected lineup
VS
ERA
5.79
WHIP
1.61
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 45% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 17.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 20% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .387 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 0% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 86% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.2
K/GM
1.6
IP/GM
4.50
ERA
1.50
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
0% barrel · 86% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.50 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
8 329°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.