Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ROB REFSNYDER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ROB
REFSNYDER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
35
Grade F
Matchup
VS Eric Lauer · LHP
86.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
18
VS
ERA
4.25
WHIP
1.13
K%
14%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 106.6 | 85.0 |
| Barrel% | 100% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 27% |
| xwOBA | 1.442 | .304 |
| xSLG | 2.745 | .458 |
| Whiff% | 38% | 17% |
| Chase% | 38% | 40% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
106.6 avg EV · 100.0% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lauer—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
5 202°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game