Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Roki Sasaki
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.42 · WHIP 1.33 · K 22% · 11 starts
ROKI SASAKI
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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ROKI
SASAKI
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%98 mph
Splitter37%90 mph
Slider23%87 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.42
WHIP
1.33
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 28% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .334 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
5.1
IP/GM
4.21
ERA
1.48
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.21 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
5 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:14 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.