Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ronald Acuna
Atlanta Braves · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
72
B
Tonight's Matchup
67
Matchup
Plus matchup
vs Mason Fluharty · LHP · 85.7 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
Park/Weather +8 (boost)
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.33
K%
27%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
92.5
83.9
Barrel%
23.5%
0.0%
Hard Hit%
56%
17%
xwOBA
.508
.226
xSLG
.864
.297
Whiff%
25%
24%
Chase%
24%
26%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
First career meeting vs Mason Fluharty.
Tonight's Park · Truist Park
Neutral parkHR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather · few clouds
Wind helping HRHR weather
+5%
Temp
76°
Wind
7 cross
Rain
0%
HR/Temp/Wind colored for the hitter · Rain = game-delay risk
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
92.5
Barrel%
23.5%
Hard Hit%
56%
Sweet Spot%
29%
xwOBA
0.508
xSLG
0.864
Recent Games
Last 5
80%
4/5 games
Last 10
60%
6/10 games
Last 20
70%
14/20 games
Last 30
70%
21/30 games
AVG
.229
OBP
.413
SLG
.686
OPS
1.099
HR
5
RBI
10
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/3 | Toronto Blue Jays | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 6/2 | Toronto Blue Jays | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/31 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 5/29 | Cincinnati Reds | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 |
| 5/27 | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 5/26 | Boston Red Sox | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Washington Nationals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Ronald Acuna
Atlanta Braves · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
89.9 mph
Avg LA
14.1°
Hard-hit %
44%
Barrel %
17%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
1Double
8Single
23Out
64Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/26/2026 - 6/3/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
B+Performance Score
75Exit Velo
92.2 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
47.4%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
20.0%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.651
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
36.8%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: xwOBA, Sweet Spot%
Areas for Improvement: Well-rounded performance
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
113.3 mph
Launch Angle
12.8°
xBA
0.424
xSLG
1.147
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
42.1%
Fly Ball%
36.8%
Line Drive%
15.8%
Pop Up%
5.3%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.