Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
ROYCE LEWIS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ROYCE
LEWIS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
51
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Erick Fedde · RHP
88.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
52
VS
ERA
4.19
WHIP
1.25
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.7 | 88.1 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 35% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .384 | .352 |
| xSLG | .536 | .513 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 17% |
| Chase% | 39% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.7 avg EV · 11.7% barrel · 35% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Fedde0
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
94°
Wind
7 264°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:51 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game