Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Feltner
Colorado Rockies · Chicago Cubs vs Colorado Rockies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.46 · WHIP 1.18 · K 18% · 6 starts
RYAN FELTNER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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RYAN
FELTNER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider32%89 mph
4-Seam28%95 mph
Changeup19%85 mph
Matchup
VS CHC LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.46
WHIP
1.18
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 19% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .345 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
4.8
IP/GM
4.13
ERA
0.96
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 6 starts
0 of 6 starts over
Last 5: 4.13 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CHC—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
7 89°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-2%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:11 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.