Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.02 · WHIP 1.47 · K 19% · 10 starts
RYAN GUSTO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RYAN
GUSTO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%94 mph
Changeup21%87 mph
Sinker14%93 mph
Sweeper13%82 mph
Cutter11%89 mph
Slider9%86 mph
Curveball7%79 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.02
WHIP
1.47
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .387 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.0
IP/GM
3.00
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.00 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+16%
2B
+17%
3B
+103%
K
-8%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
6 83°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-6%
K Adj
+2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:11 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.