Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.91 · WHIP 1.18 · K 19% · 11 starts
RYAN GUSTO
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RYAN
GUSTO
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam30%95 mph
Slider13%85 mph
Sweeper13%81 mph
Cutter12%90 mph
Curveball11%79 mph
Changeup11%87 mph
Sinker11%93 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.91
WHIP
1.18
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .361 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.6
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
1.99
ERA
1.28
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.99 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 133°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:52 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.