Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Gusto
Miami Marlins · Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.40 · WHIP 1.12 · K 18% · 30 starts
RYAN GUSTO
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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RYAN
GUSTO
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.40
WHIP
1.12
K%
18%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 37% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .457 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
0.0
K/GM
6.0
IP/GM
7.50
ERA
1.33
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
18% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Rate Breakdown · Over Rate by Split
—
Overall
—
Home
—
Last 5
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vs TB
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:30 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.