Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Johnson
Los Angeles Angels · Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels · Pitcher
ERA 11.88 · WHIP 2.40 · K 9% · 2 starts
RYAN JOHNSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RYAN
JOHNSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker42%93 mph
Splitter27%86 mph
Matchup
VS BAL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
2
projected lineup
VS
ERA
11.88
WHIP
2.40
K%
9%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .385 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.0
K/GM
4.2
IP/GM
11.88
ERA
2.40
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
9% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 2 starts
0 of 2 starts over
Last 5: 11.88 ERA · 9% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BAL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
8 222°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.