Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryan Weathers
New York Yankees · New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.88 · WHIP 1.27 · K 26% · 11 starts
RYAN WEATHERS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
RYAN
WEATHERS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam28%96 mph
Changeup24%86 mph
Sweeper21%81 mph
Sinker16%94 mph
Slider11%87 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.88
WHIP
1.27
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .446 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
3.47
ERA
1.46
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.47 ERA · 28% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
9 85°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.