Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ryne Nelson
Arizona Diamondbacks · Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.46 · WHIP 1.33 · K 12% · 6 starts
RYNE NELSON
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RYNE
NELSON
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam55%96 mph
Slider20%89 mph
Cutter13%93 mph
Curveball9%81 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.46
WHIP
1.33
K%
12%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 13% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .407 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 41% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
6.3
IP/GM
4.60
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
12% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 41% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 6 starts
0 of 6 starts over
Last 5: 4.60 ERA · 12% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.