Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Ryne Nelson
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · Pitcher
ERA 4.10 · WHIP 1.22 · K 14% · 10 starts
RYNE NELSON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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RYNE
NELSON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam58%97 mph
Slider33%87 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
36
projected lineup
VS
ERA
4.10
WHIP
1.22
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 24% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .420 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 22% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 56% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
1.8
K/GM
2.8
IP/GM
5.79
ERA
1.57
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
22% barrel · 56% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.79 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
6 276°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:17 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.