Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sam Aldegheri
Los Angeles Angels · Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.08 · WHIP 1.43 · K 15% · 9 starts
SAM ALDEGHERI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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SAM
ALDEGHERI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam50%92 mph
Changeup30%80 mph
Curveball9%75 mph
Cutter8%86 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.08
WHIP
1.43
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .377 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.8
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
6.65
ERA
1.48
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 6.65 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
11 231°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+23%
K Adj
-3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:57 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.