SAM ALDEGHERI

Over K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

SAM

ALDEGHERI

Over K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Changeup40%81 mph

4-Seam36%92 mph

Matchup

VS TB LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE

88

Fantastic

projected lineup

VS

ERA

1.93

WHIP

1.29

K%

13%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	26%	25%
SwStr%	14.4%	11%
Chase%	39%	28%
xwOBA-a	.215	.315
Barrel%-a	6%	8%
HardHit%-a	29%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

2.5

K/GM

4.7

IP/GM

1.93

ERA

1.29

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

13% season K rate

Contact Suppression

6% barrel · 29% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Big HR park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 2 starts

0 of 2 starts over

Last 5: 1.93 ERA · 13% K

5

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs TB—

Tonight's Park

HR

+13%

Hits

-2%

2B

-13%

3B

-3%

K

+5%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

75°

Wind

9 223°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+8%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 10:31 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.