Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Sandy Alcantara
Miami Marlins · Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.31 · WHIP 1.04 · K 19% · 11 starts
SANDY ALCANTARA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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SANDY
ALCANTARA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker34%97 mph
Changeup19%91 mph
4-Seam16%97 mph
Cutter16%90 mph
Slider7%85 mph
Sweeper5%84 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.31
WHIP
1.04
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 15% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .288 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 33% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
6.6
IP/GM
2.45
ERA
1.12
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 33% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.45 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
5 133°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-15%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:15 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.