Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sean Burke
Chicago White Sox · New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.24 · WHIP 1.06 · K 34% · 11 starts
SEAN BURKE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SEAN
BURKE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam37%96 mph
Slider23%87 mph
Knuckle-Curve19%79 mph
Sinker13%95 mph
Cutter9%91 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.24
WHIP
1.06
K%
34%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 14.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .314 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 27% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
9.0
K/GM
6.3
IP/GM
1.14
ERA
0.76
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
34% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 27% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.14 ERA · 38% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
2 191°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:43 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.