Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Sean Manaea
New York Mets · New York Mets vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.82 · WHIP 1.33 · K 21% · 11 starts
SEAN MANAEA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
SEAN
MANAEA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam42%93 mph
Sweeper30%76 mph
Sinker15%91 mph
Cutter8%85 mph
Changeup6%85 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.82
WHIP
1.33
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .446 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 20% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
7.22
ERA
1.43
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
20% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.22 ERA · 16% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 11:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.