Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Sean Manaea
New York Mets · Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.05 · WHIP 1.16 · K 23% · 10 starts
SEAN MANAEA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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SEAN
MANAEA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper32%77 mph
4-Seam29%91 mph
Sinker25%90 mph
Cutter11%85 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.05
WHIP
1.16
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 16% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .384 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 19% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.7
IP/GM
4.24
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
19% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 4.24 ERA · 23% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
5 155°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:22 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.