Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
SEAN MURPHY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
SEAN
MURPHY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Max Fried · LHP
89.3 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
14
VS
ERA
3.76
WHIP
1.07
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.5 | 83.8 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 29% |
| xwOBA | .204 | .231 |
| xSLG | .260 | .304 |
| Whiff% | 25% | 22% |
| Chase% | 60% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Fried—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
7 167°
Rain
20%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:25 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game